06 May 2021
Forecasts show that the proportion of people using motorcycles tends to increase, from 57% in 2019 to 71% in 2030. This will be the highest rate in the world.
Report “Development strategy of motorbike traffic safety to 2025, vision to 2030” by the research team led by PhD. Nguyen Huu Duc chaired with his colleagues as a part of a scientific project to build “Strategy for development of motorcycle traffic safety to 2025, vision to 2030”, by the Traffic Safety Department (Ministry of Transport). owner of Project.
In this report, a 7-member research group of scientists, including a Japanese researcher, gave data related to 3 contents that need to be forecasted, including: Growth rate motorcycle; Number of people using motorbikes; Traffic accidents related to motorcycles.
The study uses historical data and future socio-economic data to predict future motorcycle traffic with mathematical tools in statistical probability theory, such as multivariate regression algorithms.
In principle, the total number of people living 16 years and over, is the upper limit of the number of motorcycle users and the increase in their year can reasonably be considered as the increase in the demand for a license.
The study also includes the number of electric motorcycles, using data statistics including electric scooters from 2015 onwards.
| Y | Pop. (000) | No. of motorbikes | Pop > 16y (000) |
No. of users (000) | No. of licenses (000) | Ratio of users over no. of over 16 |
| 2019 | 95.387 | 40.779.947 | 71.697 | 41.534 | 36.667 | 57,93% |
| 2020 | 96.302 | 43.034.118 | 72.441 | 44.040 | 37.396 | 60,79% |
| 2021 | 97.188 | 45.142.457 | 73.197 | 44.006 | 38.128 | 60,12% |
| 2022 | 97.981 | 47.198.973 | 73.954 | 45.715 | 38.854 | 61,82% |
| 2023 | 98.683 | 49.139.880 | 74.712 | 47.374 | 39.575 | 63,41% |
| 2024 | 99.306 | 50.992.489 | 75.478 | 48.712 | 40.301 | 64,54% |
| 2025 | 99.929 | 52.903.603 | 76.258 | 50.160 | 41.037 | 65,78% |
| 2026 | 100.545 | 54.857.432 | 77.043 | 52.129 | 41.780 | 67,66% |
| 2027 | 101.139 | 56.834.134 | 77.819 | 52.755 | 42.515 | 67,79% |
| 2028 | 101.735 | 58.873.485 | 78.603 | 55.077 | 43.262 | 70,07% |
| 2029 | 102.321 | 60.963.494 | 79.383 | 56.483 | 44.012 | 71,15% |
| 2030 | 102.886 | 63.076.485 | 80.164 | 57.147 | 44.773 | 71,29% |
According to the study, there are some people who do not use motorbikes and some people do not take the license, but the number is not many.
Under the Road Traffic Laws, all citizens aged 16 and over can use a motorcycle (under 50cc) and must have a license at the age of 18 to be allowed to drive at least 50 cc.
Forecast figures show that the proportion of people using motorbikes tends to increase, from 57% in 2019 to more than 71% in 2030.
Surely this is one of the high rates in the world, the study stated.
This rate is even higher if only the number of people aged 18 and over, the age of using a motorcycle (over 50cc) under the Road Traffic Laws. These figures have important implications for planning and policy related to driver training plans, driver management … in this decade.
Source: 24h.com.vn
