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16 Dec 2022
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has just raised its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2022 but lowered its forecast for GDP growth in 2023.
In a report released on December 14, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) decreased its economic growth forecast for Asia and the Pacific amid the down-trend global outlook.
Accordingly, ADB has lowered its inflation forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific from 4.5% to 4.4% this year. However, the bank raised its forecast for next year from 4.0% to 4.2%, due to persistent inflationary pressures from energy and food prices.
Although Vietnam’s economy is performing well in the context of global economic uncertainty, risks to the economic outlook are increasing. ADB raised its economic growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.5% in 2022 (from 6.7% in the previous forecast). At the same time, inflation is forecast to drop to 3.5%.
(Forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth documented from multinational organizations)
While trade continues to grow, there are signs that global demand for Vietnam’s exports is downsizing. Therefore, Vietnam’s economic growth forecast in 2023 is revised down to 6.3% due to weakening of major trading partners.
According to the ADB, the tightening of monetary policy by central banks globally and in the region, as well as the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and prevention of Covid in China are slowing down Asia’s recovery.
The Zero-Covid policy, coupled with a troubled real estate market, once again lowered China’s growth prospects.
ADB Chief Economist Albert Park said that Asia and the Pacific will continue to recover, but worsening global conditions mean the recovery will stall for next year new. Governments will need to work together more closely to overcome the lingering challenges of Covid-19, countering the impact of high food and energy prices – especially on the poor and vulnerable – and ensure a comprehensive and inclusive economic recovery.
ADB’s growth forecast for Southeast Asia this year has been raised from 5.1% to 5.5%, amid a strong recovery in consumption and tourism in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. However, the forecast for next year decreased from 5% to 4.7% due to weak global demand.
Thiết kế website bởi Mona Media