IMF forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth amidst Asia’s decline

15 Oct 2022

TTO – International Monetary Fund’s Asian Economic Outlook released on October 11 forecast that Vietnam’s actual GDP growth will reach 7%, ranking first in the ASEAN-5 group.

IMF dự báo GDP Việt Nam tiếp tục tăng trưởng trong lúc châu Á giảm - Ảnh 1.

In a report published on October 11, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast Asia’s actual GDP growth will reach 4% in 2022, lower than the 6.5% rate in 2021. This is fourth time in a year the organization lowered its growth expectations for Asia.

Emerging Asian economies will grow 4.4% this year and 4.9% in 2023, down 0.2 percentage points and 0.1 percentage point, respectively, from July forecasts.

The IMF explained the lowering of Asia’s growth expectations was due to a slowdown in China’s growth. The continent’s leading economy is expected to grow 3.2% this year from 8.1% in 2021.

The IMF report also predicts that the actual GDP of the group of 5 emerging economies in ASEAN including Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand (ASEAN-5) is expected to grow by 5.3% this year compared to 3.4% in 2021.

Growth for this group is expected to fall to 4.9% in 2023 due to weaker demand in major trading partners such as China, the European area, and the US.

Vietnam topped ASEAN-5 with growth forecast to reach 7% in 2022 from 2.6% in 2021 but will slow to 6.2% in 2023.

Singapore is classified in the group of developed economies of Asia alongside Japan and South Korea. Their growth was forecast to decrease to 3% and 2.3% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. This is a significant decrease compared to 7.6% in 2021.

Japan’s economy will grow 1.7% this year, unchanged from July’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2023, down 0.1 percentage point.

“A growing debt crisis in (emerging) economies will weigh on global growth and possibly lead to a global recession,” the IMF warned, noting that the US dollar becoming stronger will make the situation worse.

The report also addresses the growing risk of a global recession. This urges policymakers to fight inflation, protect the most vulnerable from rising costs of living, support markets of emerging and developing countries.



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